Transparent & Data-Driven

Signal Performance & Methodology

We believe in radical transparency. Every confidence score is backed by real backtested data. See exactly how our signals perform across different sources, confidence levels, and market conditions.

AlphaSignal Weekly Backtest

Hypothetical $10,000 performance following Alpha Opportunities. Each week we refresh the Top 5 and Top 10 stocks and ETFs identified by our Alpha Opportunities list, and apply a simple 3% stop-loss risk rule.

This is a transparent, rules-based view of how our signals could have performed—unlock full access to daily Alpha Opportunities and premium signal intelligence.

January–September

Quantitative signals only

September–Present

Alternative signals added (Congress, Dark Pool, Institutional, ML Ensemble, AI Analysis)

54.0%

Raw Win Rate

0.18%

Raw Avg Return

647,471

Backtested Signals

Evaluation Horizon

Alpha Performance (vs SPY)

The naked truth: performance after removing market movement

0.27%

Avg Alpha (Excess Return)

54.4%

Beat SPY Rate

0.00%

SPY Avg Return (Same Period)

What is Alpha?

Alpha measures how much our signals beat (or lag) the market. A +1% alpha means signals returned 1% more than SPY over the same period. This strips out market beta—in a +5% SPY rally, a signal returning +6% has +1% alpha. This is the true measure of signal value.

Backtested Performance

Every signal type is tracked against actual market outcomes to calculate real win rates and returns.

Adaptive Learning

Confidence scores adjust automatically as new market data comes in. Poor performers get downweighted.

Full Transparency

No black boxes. See sample sizes, win rates, and methodology for every signal source and type.

Signal Source Reliability

Performance rankings by data source

Statistical Extremes

16 signal types

63.9%

1.57%

1.67%

64.2%

125,113

Rotation Radar

1 signal types

57.0%

0.26%

0.07%

59.1%

Short Volume Intel

4 signal types

57.0%

0.45%

0.47%

55.2%

2,915

Macro Events

3 signal types

56.7%

1.02%

0.69%

54.7%

8,282

Short Interest Intel

3 signal types

55.5%

0.03%

0.00%

53.1%

429

Institutional Holdings

2 signal types

54.9%

0.42%

0.44%

55.8%

46,480

Fundamental Analysis

5 signal types

53.3%

0.20%

0.22%

53.0%

810

Congressional Trading

1 signal types

53.0%

0.29%

0.35%

53.1%

39,620

AI Deep Analysis

8 signal types

52.2%

0.24%

0.30%

51.9%

1,809

Dark Pool Activity

5 signal types

52.1%

-0.06%

0.02%

52.4%

304,855

ML Forecasts

2 signal types

51.1%

-0.00%

-0.05%

49.8%

4,894

Market Events

1 signal types

50.9%

0.02%

0.20%

51.7%

14,801

Warn

2 signal types

50.0%

0.32%

0.41%

52.9%

170

Cognitive Load Indicator

1 signal types

48.9%

-0.34%

-0.08%

51.4%

46,683

Fails-to-Deliver

6 signal types

45.3%

-1.39%

-1.17%

48.3%

39,988

Fundamentals

2 signal types

44.8%

-0.34%

-0.41%

44.8%

612

Form 8-K Material Events

14 signal types

43.7%

-0.88%

-0.82%

44.5%

5,772

Insider Trading

4 signal types

43.7%

-1.24%

-1.39%

43.2%

4,169

Technical Analysis

2 signal types

40.8%

-1.53%

-2.80%

43.4%

19,185

Sector Flow

1 signal types

38.3%

-0.47%

-0.11%

47.9%

Top Performing Signal Types

Win rate > 60% with at least 20 samples

Volume Z-Score Surge

Statistical Extremes

Bearish

                    88.5%
                

High

→

408

Momentum Z-Score: Strong Down

Statistical Extremes

Bearish

                    87.4%
                

High

→

533

Momentum Z-Score: Strong Up

Statistical Extremes

Bullish

                    84.4%
                

High

→

748

Volume Z-Score Surge

Statistical Extremes

Bullish

                    79.7%
                

High

→

503

Short Interest: Shorts Covering

Short Interest Intel

Bullish

                    78.0%
                

High

→

50

Form 8-K: Agreement Terminated

Form 8-K Material Events

Bearish

                    68.7%
                

High

→

99

Rsi Overbought

Unknown

Bearish

                    68.4%
                

High

↓

98

Gap Down

Technical Analysis

Bearish

                    67.8%
                

High

→

                    2,205
                

Gap Up

Technical Analysis

Bullish

                    67.6%
                

High

→

                    1,924
                

MACD Extreme

Statistical Extremes

Bullish

                    67.1%
                

High

→

286

How We Calculate Confidence (0-100 Scale)

Our 3-step formula for signal scoring

Base Confidence

We calculate a weighted average of all agreeing signals:

Base = Σ(Win Rate × Weight) / Σ(Weight)

Example: Congress (55% win rate, 0.70 weight) + Dark Pool (65%, 0.78) = 61 base

Confluence Boost

Multiple independent signals get a bonus:

2 signals: +3 points
3 signals: +7 points
4+ signals: +10 points

Diversity Bonus (0-8 points)

Diverse signal types and sources get additional boost:

Type diversity: +0 to +5 points
Source diversity: +0 to +3 points

Example: 4 different signal types from 3 sources = +8 diversity bonus

Final Score

Base + Confluence + Diversity = Final Confidence (0-100)

Example: 61 + 7 + 8 = 76 (High Confidence)

Confidence Tiers

75-100: High Confidence

65-74: Medium Confidence

55-64: Low Confidence

Below 55: Not displayed publicly

Our Signals Learn From Performance

Adaptive weighting based on recent performance

Unlike static systems, our signal weights adapt based on recent performance:

Example: Dark Pool Signals

All-Time: 65% win rate → 0.78 weight

Last 30 Days: 72% win rate → 0.82 weight ↑

Recent strong performance increases the signal's influence on future confidence scores.

Weight Calculation

30-Day Win Rate	Weight
≥70%	0.90 (Maximum influence)
65-69%	0.80 (High influence)
60-64%	0.70 (Good influence)
55-59%	0.60 (Moderate influence)
50-54%	0.50 (Low influence)
<50%	0.40 (Minimal influence)